2005
Al-Sultan: 283W
2004
Al-Sultan: 286.9w
Interestingly, it seems Faris Al-Sultan has been the most consistent cyclist on the course over the years, both in terms of power output and published data. While there isn't enough data to make any definitive conclusions, it doesn't look like the top athletes have significantly increased their power over the years. We're lacking some critical information, though, not the least of which are measurements of athletes in the 80's and 90's (sadly, power meters weren't invented yet) and from the more spectacular performances by uber-bikers Chris Lieto and Normann Stadler. It's not a smoking gun, but it is another piece of evidence that indicates that the bikes have improved more than the athletes. This is corroborated by the extreme similarity between the two analyses Mott ran on bike splits in Kona. Remember that his first comparison used the average time of the top 10 finishers. His second comparison looked at the single best cyclist in each year. The trend lines for both sets of data are very close to one another. This means that there likely aren't outliers "blowing the curve" in any particular year.
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Mott is right that bikes and cycling equipment have contributed a great deal to athlete performances in Kona between 1988 and 2014. However, whether technology will continue to make those kinds of contributions remains to be seen. Manufacturers are always trying something new, but design advances over the last five years suggest they may be running out of tricks. Triathlon bike frames are looking more and more similar to each other all the time, which suggests everyone is reaching the same conclusion as to what the "right answer" is. Do the aerodynamicists have another tech revolution up their sleeves, or will the athletes be left on their own to find a few more watts to make it to T2 first? Only time will tell. Place your bets depending on how confident you are in the lines the Austin folks have drawn.
Of course, that line will only give you an indication of how the bike leg will go. There's still a swim before and a run afterward. Mott ran a brief analysis of run splits just to gain some perspective on their bike investigation. Are we really getting better with time and, if so, by how much? Watch out for part 2 of this series to find out.
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